Iran sanctions: bullies swagger, people stagger

Iran’s tentative dance with the West continues today, as the UN proposes imposing a fourth round of sanctions. Aimed at curbing the alleged Persian desire for nuclear weapons, it has, at best, done no more than rattle sabres on all sides and raise tempers in an already apoplectic Middle East.

I can’t help feeling irritated and annoyed with this. Iran has at last made a concessionary swap of low-grade fissile material for enriched, non-weapons grade uranium. Brokered by Turkey and Brazil, this IS a step forward. Condemned by the US and usual suspects UK and France as “too little, too late”, it is much more than anything their good offices have achieved yet. While President Ahmadenijad makes no friends by railing that this is a “one-off” deal, the fact is, it was struck and is going ahead.

Certainly, Turkey and Brazil cannot be happy with these latest proposed sanctions. Their diplomatic credentials are questioned whenever brokerage with perceived rogue states like Iran gets underway. Both are in the G-20; one is a BRIC and both have UN Security Council membership aspirations. Neither wants to look stupid thanks to the ravings of the Iranian leadership but equally, neither wants to be humiliated by condescending threats of stiff sanctions rolled-out by the White House. Worse still that Foreign Secretary Hillary Clinton, like some stiff schoolmistress, should roll these threats out while visiting inconsequential Ecuador – in Brazil’s own backyard!

But! How many divisions does the Pope have: or in this case what veto powers do Turkey or Brazil have? None whatsoever.  Sanctions will go ahead, as it appears both China and Russia, desperate to avoid confrontation over Iran, will press sanctions while offering carrots and cookies to Tehran through other channels.

The outcome: no change. The grim visage of Ayatollah Khomeini gazes down upon his subjects and his people in power. Again, Iran, like the so-called rogue states, will be in a corner, pushed, harried, angered and therefore doubly dangerous. Again, the hardliners will win, their popularity and power diminishing at home, even as ordinary Iranians grown frustrated and furious. Of course, imposing sanctions and then expecting to talk on equal terms, is quite impossible. And the US knows it. That’s why it does it.

Methinks the ladies protesteth too much

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